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Scooping Opportunity
You are working with a national frozen dessert brand known for its gourmet gelato. The client is considering opening a series of pop-up shops in New York City to sell single-serve gelato cups directly to consumers. To evaluate the opportunity, they’ve asked you to estimate the total annual revenue opportunity for the single-serve gelato market in NYC.
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📋 Solution:
Scooping Opportunity
Step 1: Segment the Market
We’ll segment by consumer lifestyle, which correlates with dessert-buying behavior:
- Young Professionals & Millennials (ages 22–40, urban, trend-sensitive)
- Families with Children (parents, often buying for households)
- Older Adults (ages 55+, more health-conscious, lower impulse purchase rate)
Step 2: Estimate the Population in Each Segment
Start with NYC’s population: ~8.5 million
Assume 80% are adults → 6.8 million
Add ~1.7 million children for family segment
- Young Professionals: 30% of adults → ~2.04 million
- Families: 25% of households → assume 1.7M children tied to ~1.2M adults = ~2.9 million people
- Older Adults: 20% of adults → ~1.36 million
Step 3: Estimate % Who Buy Single-Serve Gelato
- Young Professionals: 50% buy → ~1.02 million
- Families: 40% buy (parents buying for kids) → ~1.16 million
- Older Adults: 25% buy → ~340,000
Step 4: Estimate Purchase Frequency
- Young Professionals: 2 cups/month → ~24 cups/year
- Families: 3 cups/month (per family unit) → ~36 cups/year
- Older Adults: 1 cup/month → ~12 cups/year
Step 5: Calculate Annual Revenue by Segment (Assume $4/Cup)
- Young Professionals: 1.02M × 24 × $4 = $98 million
- Families: 1.16M × 36 × $4 = $167 million
- Older Adults: 340K × 12 × $4 = $16 million
Step 6: Add It All Up
Total NYC single-serve gelato market (on-premise, at $4/cup):
≈ $281 million per year