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Pipeline

Case Interview Practice > 
Math

The Chief Revenue Officer shares that Torrent currently runs 200 competitive sales opportunities per quarter with a 31% win rate, and the average new contract value is $180,000 in ARR. The sales team believes that targeted coaching and a revised competitive playbook could bring the win rate back to 42%. Assume these changes cost $3M to implement upfront and have no ongoing cost. How much incremental ARR does the win rate improvement generate annually, and what is the payback period on the $3M investment?

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Sample answer from an expert consultant

Rounding is standard practice in case interviews and almost always permitted with a quick ask.

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Step 1: Calculate current quarterly new logo ARR

200 opportunities x 31% win rate = 62 new customers per quarter.

62 x $180,000 = $11,160,000 in new ARR per quarter.

Rounded: 60 x $180,000 = $10.8M per quarter.

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Step 2: Calculate new logo ARR at 42% win rate

200 x 42% = 84 new customers per quarter.

84 x $180,000 = $15,120,000 in new ARR per quarter.

Rounded: 85 x $180,000 = $15.3M per quarter.

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Step 3: Calculate incremental ARR per quarter and annually

Incremental per quarter: $15,120,000 - $11,160,000 = $3,960,000.

Incremental annually: $3,960,000 x 4 = $15,840,000 in additional ARR per year.

Rounded: approximately $16M in incremental annual ARR.

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Step 4: Calculate payback period

$3M investment / $15.84M incremental ARR per year = 0.19 years.

Rounded: approximately 2.3 months payback.

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Step 5: Contextualize

A 2 to 3 month payback on a $3M investment is an exceptionally strong return. Recovering the win rate to historical levels alone would close nearly $16M of the $65M ARR gap between current performance and the $150M target. This makes sales effectiveness the highest-priority near-term lever, ahead of more expensive and slower options like geographic expansion or new product development.

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